So, technically, Joe Biden is president. Administratively, the president has king-like powers with surprisingly few formal checks and balances that don’t end in the rhetorical cul de sac of “constitutional crisis” where, ultimately, nothing happens.
But politically, there is no longer any center of power in the US. In a democracy, people should see their elected officials as their greatest strength in ensuring that their views are represented. Of course, politicians have always been disappointing, but in the US, the strength of the democratic process has been replaced by a media proxy. Members of the pundit class, accountable sometimes to their advertisers but always to a loyal audience, rather than being subordinate to the democratic system behave as if they are beyond or outside of it; working with innuendo and narratives that exist outside of supported fact patterns.
With this in mind, I expect we will see some of the following things happen during a Joe Biden presidency:
- Donald Trump does not go away. His future depends on having an active political role that is very supportive and very engaged. Otherwise he goes to prison. He may go to prison anyway, but this is the only way he can avoid it.
- Mainstream conservative media depicts Joe Biden as a puppet. Because of his age and folksy style, the air of “senile” and “invalid” and “dementia” will hang on him. He will be called the puppet of Kamala Harris, of the liberal left, of Nancy Pelosi, of “the squad”, or any number of Conservative boogie men.
- Conspiracy-minded conservative media depicts Joe Biden as a Manchurian candidate. Similar to how Trump was treated while he was in office, Joe Biden is a corrupted Chinese-controlled, election stealing interloper who must be driven from office.
- Whataboutism drives the Senate. Assuming Republicans maintain control, investigations of Joe Biden will be at a pace greater than that of the Trump years. The justification will be both “concern” and “this is what you put Trump through so fair is fair.” Whether Hunter Biden, China, or whatever else, the comity Joe Biden may have had with Senate leaders will vanish within six months.
- Mid-terms continue to be divided. Republicans will have activated their base on claims of stolen elections. Democrats will be harder to engage because of two years of investigation and obstruction in the Senate, with the marginally attached Joe Biden voter (read: most of them) not feeling like Joe Biden has done anything to earn their vote. Depending on how relevant Trump is, Republicans could gain seats in the House again.
- Joe Biden won’t become a pugilist. Joe Biden will not learn to counterpunch – to animate his voters by giving them raw red meat. He will continue his strategy that centrism and compromise will lead to better outcomes for all. He will not be able to do what Trump was able to do because he believes too strongly in rules, norms and relationships. These relationships will not pay dividends for him because politicians no longer have the same ability to shape the narrative – that’s the job of the Pundit Class.
- Executive orders and returning to a routine foreign policy will be the “major accomplishment” in the first 24 months. All the things a president can do without congress or courts will be what he gets done. Rule changes will come towards the end of that period. Most of it will be “you should have done that” stuff, not “I never thought of that and it’s brilliant.”
- Foreign military policy will return to more like the Obama years. There will continue to be absurdly large military spending and the projection of power globally with a focus on NATO.
- Immigration policy will change less than you expect. Trump was useful to centrists like Joe Biden in that he did things that they probably agree with without paying a political price for doing it themselves. Joe Biden will do the popular things; fully supporting DACA, making legal immigration paths more predictable, allowing more refugees in than Trump. But he won’t end stricter enforcement. He won’t end the asylum-outside-the-US process if he isn’t forced to. He is happy to always have the choice to loosen laws instead of being forced to tighten them.
- China trade relations will improve but not return to what they were. Again, Joe Biden was happy that Trump did it, because now he can take advantage of it. Even though Joe Biden is an ordoliberal, he also thinks the relationship with China had to change.
- Relations with allies will not return to normal. As long as populist conservatives can get nearly 50% of the vote, our allies won’t feel as close to us. We aren’t reliable anymore. We will get the “I like you Joe, but I don’t trust that this’ll stay this way.”
- A centrist Democrat and Republican coalition may emerge. This will be focused on returning to good governance and democratic (small d) values. They won’t agree on a lot else and they may not be able to do anything other than appear on talk shows – but they may be able to peel off one elected official like Mitt Romney – but not until after he is re-elected, ironically.
The short version is that the next four years, functionally, will look the same as the last four years. Unpleasantly divided with nasty interactions between polarized constituencies with all sides too invested in their narrative to do anything other than fight – sometimes literally.
